People were shocked when they found out that Donald Trump was winning the 2016 election. They couldn't believe what was happening. As of this writing, there are still people marching against this.
Many of the US people neglected their right to vote. Considering election day in their country not a holiday, which is ridiculous, I too can't blame them for that. Someone needs to put food on the table.
The most shocked people were the political comedians. You could check their Youtube accounts. Some of them might looked like having trouble to go to sleep. They all are rooting for Democratic candidate, Clinton. Funny, thought, John Oliver admits that he might be suggesting some people to vote for Trump just for fun. Well, you could see how many celebrities reacted.
Why did Trump wins? I don't want to speculate for any conspiracies, but I am interested in knowing how Trump can win elections. This is a blog entry that sums my finding so I think I want to relax my writing by not citing here and there. If you find such, you could google them yourself or ask me in the comment. I might provide the link.
The Electoral College
I'm not an expert of other's complex political system. An article in this site would be more eligible explaining how the election works. In the end, Clinton winning the popular vote, but Trump winning the Electoral College.
Electoral College is an interesting and funny concept. Each state has their own number of electors that represented them to vote for the president. The parties is responsible to bring their elector candidates.
Later, the US citizens vote for them. Yeah, they vote not the president, but the electors. Many of the states have the system of winner takes them all. It means, when your party elector got the majority, they would take all of the elector seats available in that particular state.
Conquering The Millenials
Democrat had its luck winning Obama by using Millenials. They had effectively using social media to elevate Obama. Many young US citizens who were eligible come and vote in the election day. They provided mouth-to-mouth campaign and awareness to their surrounding. At that time, Obama even defeated Clinton for presidential candidate using social media.No Bernie Sanders, No Vote
It seems in 2016, Clinton again stumbled upon social media. When her team used many of the popular celebrities, she failed at one thing:She did not communicate well why she won over Sanders. The millenials are very fond of Socialism over Capitalism that was offered by Sanders. She did not do justice by winning over him. Some people accused that she won by rigging things up. Some supporters of Bernie Sanders decided not to vote her if she ever winning.
See, a demography that won Obama which have overflowing access of Internet was taking their tantrum quietely for Clinton. Her team seems didn't even consider Sanders as a threat.
They might be not knowing that Sanders is a popular vote for the Millenials. Their polls might represented their contituents, but young voters didn't bother themselves for party.
If I must assumed, they took their data from Democratic conventions, but Sanders was a vote from third kind. A kind of people that don't bother themselves to go to the national conventions. They aren't affiliated with any of the party. This failing of capturing data from this third kind failed Clinton.
Emails
Millenials ain't no fool! Why would they vote for Clinton? If there is no better between Trump and Clinton, why would they choose either?
Wikileaks entry about Clinton dropped her popularity. Given that she had already had a big allegation of being a war criminal, she also must take the leak of her personal emails by Wikileaks.
Not enough with Wikileaks, on Friday she got FBI investigation. Because of this, Clinton had another blow to her trustworthy. She became more untrustworthy.
The SBY Effect
In 2004, Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) won Indonesian election by defeating Megawati. His strategy was clear:
making him a soap opera protagonist.
At that time, he was accused by Megawati neglecting his duty by campaigning while he was in active duty as a Minister. He took that accusation public and made his demeanor like a person that get bullied. Boom! The public sided with him.
I don't have any sites (that not bias) to call about this. But, from what I've been following in the news and his speeches recorded in Youtube, I can see that Donald Trump also making that call. He's positioning himself as a normal person bullied by the mass media and the elites.
Then, like the 2004 Indonesian election when the economy was still recovering, Donald Trump took issues of many middle-class workers (which is the most of US citizens that go to vote) and turned it into his argument that he would tackle those issues, thus "Make America Great Again".
Such issues like:
- The immigrants was pitched as one of the major cause of job lost.
- The failing of Obama and the notion that his government only helped the rich (bailout).
- The war was burdening America and Clinton was part of that.
- etc.
The point is, they are emotionally representated by Trump. It might be untrue, but they were representated by it. Trump becomes the champion of the marginal people.
My Prediction
From what of my understanding, Trump is almost in bankruptcy. I think his strategy might be similar to SBY. He would try his best to make everyone happy. He would be accomodative to many factions and interest groups while benefitting from that. He'll be glad to be a puppy of others as long as his assets are growing.
Usually, Indonesia mirroring the US. Things happened in the US first and then the pattern happened in Indonesia. But, this time I can assure you that the position is reversed. I feel weirdly proud of that. ;-(
Oh, well....
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