The Future of Renewable Energy Cars (Why I Agree With Toyota)
Scotty Kilmer, a car mechanic YouTube persona, made a video about Toyota made a statement that they'd rather paying the carbon credit rather than creating EV. Scotty reasoned that the reason behind EV was because of these:
- The EV car is low on availability.
- Resalable is plummeting in US. People can't sell their car, or the car is way cheaper.
- The EV is expensive to fix, but the mechanics are less and less being paid.
First of all, I want to call the problem with EV: our infrastructure is not ready for mass adoption. We need to have more sustainable electric plants. For my country, Indonesia, the electric plants are using coals which is not sustainable nor green.
Source of EV
Coal Power, Traffic, Waste Burning Create Toxic Smog in Jakarta (voanews.com). As a person living in this city, I can attest to this. At the time, I always getting headache after coming from the office. The government blame the pollution to the ICE cars. But, hey, we have car-free days, but nothing happened when usually we have better air after car free day.
We have a rainy season now so the air much better. However, I can imagine that the new government will face challenges when entering dry season this year end. I wish current government can work on something and not focusing on politics.
The scarce charging stations are also the blame for this. If you googled, you could find many instances when people fighting over charging spot. Instances where people impolitely remove the charging from other cars are there.
Indonesia promotes electric vehicle charging infrastructure | Enviliance ASIA. We can say that the government is already has a plan. However, we don't see the commitment being realized fast. I can say that it will be there, but not on the near future. We need to see the charging infrastructure in other islands other than Java within the reachable distant.
Regarding the pollution, do we really go with EV solution?
Does The Cost Really Worth the Convert?
I was once told everyone that the first car will be hybrid. However, with the rise of EV, I swallowed my words and chose ICE car instead. Volvo says electric car making emissions are 70% HIGHER than petrol | This is Money
What Volvo said only sum every bit of news and report about battery production. It is really costly and actually pollute more. It would take 9 years of usage before it is breakeven.
The nickel processing plant is really moving the economy. However, the pollution they are producing will be there for the future generations to bear. We take a heavy cost for the EV to strive. We pollute the environment around the production.
Now, this is the next problem. Is it worth it? My two cents of thought think this is not worth it.
There is a looming future where we will have a Lithium shortage. Even though Lithium supply is set to triple by 2025. Will it be enough | S&P Global (spglobal.com), this will not be enough because governments around the world is pushing EV hard.
Car as a Fashion Industry is A Problem
Right to Repair
EV like other software-based goods is getting serious road blocker for humanity: Right to repair.
The cost of fixing an EV car, like Scotty mentioned in his video, is so expensive. The culture of dealerships, they prefer to replace the whole module rather than fixing the one issue. We are discouraged against independent repair shops.
There are valid reasons for this, the car is getting complex and prone to danger in mishandling of EV component. But this problem with repairability is the reason of why EV is not sustainable. The Lithium is in high demand for new cars, but you also need them for existing EV.
By replacing the whole module instead of rebuilding, EV creates so much e-waste. The module is so costly that it is better to replace the car as a whole. If we can have the ability to change only the broken cells and keep the healthy cells, we can reduce the price and the e-waste.
That's not the case right now. However, Why is the EU's right to repair legislation important? | Topics | European Parliament (europa.eu)
EU try to push the Right to repair. I hope the EV car industry can support this. They need to support the independent shops also. Give some of the cakes for third-party to thrive!
Planned Obsolescence
The second thing that also becomes a road blocker is the planned obsolescence. The car industry really needs this to enable people to keep purchasing their new products. The EV also have the same disease. As the warranty for EV mostly less than 9 years, EV car life expectancy is not even touching the breakeven!
Regarding the planned obsolescence, it actually not because of the car industry fault alone. I don't think it is fair to blame the car industry as the devil.
We have higher safety and emission standards that made the car more sophisticated than the old car. These complications by adding more sensors and electronics reduce car reliability. The mechanism for EV to get better mileage also creating additional wear and complications.
The next thing happening also engineering vs accounting problem which lowering the cost of a car to get more margin. Some of the components substituted with cheap lower quality things. This also a natural problem for the EV to meet the breakeven.
I don't have a say on this. I'm not currently study economics. I'm sure there are contentious businessmen out there trying to make the change. I hope they can make the future sustainable. Until they are known and proven, I am skeptic about this.
Tires
What we also don't realize, EV introduces problem with tires. They wear off really quickly! As user @SkittyDoogle commented on an NBC YouTube video:
Every vehicle has alignment specs from the factory. EVs are no different. Specifically for the Tesla Model S, it has a rear camber spec of -1.5 degrees with 1 degree tolerance, meaning up to -2.5 is still in spec. The rear wheels are slanted inward for stability. The further it's slanted inward means more wear. Combined with instant, very high levels of torque and a very heavy curb weight, it's no wonder they shred through tires.
We want to introduce EV as an ecological answer to the transportation means. It creates problem on other places. Other than the battery production, it also creates rubber problem. The rubber industry is really concerning regarding its sources, either the natural rubber or synthetic rubber.
The natural rubber created from rubber plant is taking the cake of responsibility of rain forest deforestation. The synthetic rubber is created from byproduct of oil. Both are problematic.
A plan for creating sustainable rubber plantation is being raised as this is a concerning matter. Also, there are ways to create synthetic rubber from rubber waste. Some uses vulcanization to recycle the tire. Honestly, not all people have the same skill. Poor vulcanized tires take lives in my country. They are re-purposed poorly just for the sake of the cost.
Sadly, these may not be applicable for EV. It weights so much more than ICE variant. It accelerates at higher torque which wears the tires faster than the ICE engine. They need special tires which means the recycled one may not.
As Rowan Atkinson mentioned in, I love electric vehicles – and was an early adopter. But increasingly I feel duped | Rowan Atkinson | The Guardian, the car industry is in the "fast fashion" sales culture. That's why I don't think the two fundamental problem of making the EV really passing the breakeven will be fixed soon. Plus, the state of rubber industry which is also concerning.
Mobility as a Service
Private companies need to create a new business model to disrupt the transportation.
Currently, they are going to go with a new business model: mobility industry. The industry will change the ownership paradigm. You will pay for the physical car as a service. In other words, you will not own the car.
As mentioned in this article: Future of Mobility: Trends and Predictions for the 2020s | Toptal®, the industry will be moving from an ownership model toward a Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) access. model. As a human, I really concerned with the model a human will not own a thing. Everything is owned by corporations which makes us dependent to them.
The concept itself feel dangerous to me. I don't mind with the fare for transportation, but in the concept of public transportation, not MaaS. But, then again, it is a novel concept where it is still a buzz word.
I do really applaud the grand concept of MaaS:
to replace private cars with multimodal personalised mobility packages enabled by a digital platform capable of integrating travel planning, booking and ticketing, and real-time information services. It is an intervention that through its digitisation, connectivity, information and sharing merits intends to inspire and support the transition to a more sustainable mobility paradigm.
It does sound a good way to address current problem of transportation: high-cost ownership, last mile transportation, sustainable environment, and many more. However, I do really have a problem when a part of important public transportation is owned by private companies.
Don't sugarcoat! Private companies are there to serve their stakeholder masters. They will have their way to make the MaaS as profitable as possible. Hence, I can accept the sharing of transportation with public transportation, not MaaS.
Sure, I might be influenced by Stallman with Uberization problem. His points are valid. Fair price between the drivers and the application has never been a level playing field. Privacy is really a concern when you don't have an audit to the data usage. Their usage terms making them not really responsible for anything happens, you just need their goodwill.
Look at the recent Grab case in Indonesia. A Grab driver tried to kidnap a woman and extorted 100 million Rupiah. Grab punished their Grab Support team, they also restructuring their SOP for fast handling.
Yeah, everything is all in Grab's hand. No government prosecution for Grab as a company neglecting the safety at the first place. No penalty given by the Indonesian government.
I don't want to dwell in politics nor pointing finger. Depending on a private company's goodwill is not enough. This case was viral.
What about the driver safety? They also need security. For-profit company with lack of motivation will not give them anything. Instead, a third-party, police officer, gives the safety mechanism using GPS panic button. This initiative should be from the company. But hey who wants additional cost?
Anyway, you may get a clue about what I think is the best course:
Public Transportation!
Yes! It is the right answer all the way. We may have other solutions to challenge EV like using Hydrogen fuel, synthetic fuel using wind technology to zero carbon, and any other solutions. The best answer is already existing. Public transportation for the win!
It is cheap and designed to carry lots of people with lower cost. It makes the road less crowded. It promotes efficiency because with the same fuel used, more people are being transported.
The bad news is, for me, the Covid era skewed my view for public transportation. Lots of my family members graduated from living in this earth because of the pandemic. The carelessness view of many people about Covid made me really nervous using public transportation.
I won't give up to this fear. I am doing my mind a rehab. I still want to be a proponent of public transportation like before Covid. However, after the pandemic, public transportation is still not recovering.
I don't know if this is intentional for the government. I mean, the car industry gives high tax and takes many labors. [PS: This is just a spicy gossip for you who still reading this]
Whatever the reason, I have a problem with using public transportation. I need to walk about 3.2KM to reach the nearest public transportation. That's why, I still use a private car or a scooter, depending on the weather.
And for the resources to replace ICE, what would I think the best?
Natural Gas as Transition From ICE
I myself considering my car to be updated with using natural gas. It reduces carbon emission. It is widely accepted as a transition resource before we move to renewable solution.
There are two types of the natural gas: Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG). In Indonesia, we are now opt-in for CNG. Previously we supported LPG, but it is more costly than CNG that's why Indonesia decided to move away to CNG.
The certification for ICE converts is available in Indonesia. In fact, we have CNG fueling station ready on some Indonesian islands. Not much, but more than the EV charging station. We also have program to create bio-CNG.
Personally, I think picking to move to CNG for me is a good option. I can upgrade my existing ICE car to use CNG by adding CNG tube in my trunk. There are professionals with certification that can put it safely. The price is between US$1,200~2,000 which is quite affordable.
The advantage for this is because my car becomes a hybrid. I can use CNG where it is applicable. When I need to go to places that not supported by CNG filling station, I can switch to the regular gas.
Another advantage for me is because the cost of CNG fuel is lower than current cheapest gasoline (Pertalite/RON90). The price is US$0.28 per litre. It is way more affordable than my current gas which uses premium gasoline (RON98).
Btw, I don't mean to brag affording higher octane gasoline. My current car like other newer cars is using turbocharged engine. It needs to use higher octane gasoline to work well. Lower octane especially the subsidized version which sometimes has questionable quality that can wear the engine. It builds carbon deposit faster.
CNG is rated at 120~130 octane number. That high octane is really sweet for my turbocharged engine. Some users on Gas Convert Group on Facebook also reported that their engine is cleaner than regular gasoline.
Hydrogen Fuel is The Future I Hope For
My long-term hope for renewable fuel is in the hydrogen. It is costly now and the creation is not environmentally friendly.
Hydrogen as a fuel: the pros and cons | Pirelli explains better than I. Hydrogen is way more efficient than EV. The weight of a car is less heavy than EV. It produces water as by-product. It can be used as diesel replacement.
I love diesel. It has higher torque than gasoline. It means, I can go with better milage on twisty and mountainous road. The roads around my house also twisty and has higher slope. Sometimes I need to stop and maneuvering through narrow streets with around 20 degrees slope.
The instant torque is really useful for me. The nearest vacation spot for me is Puncak and Sentul, which is mostly mountainous road.
The next advantage for me is the fueling time. EV takes hours to get full. Hydrogen is like regular gas. It needs 5 minutes to refuel which is convenient in the future.
Yes, in the future.
Indonesia Sets for Hydrogen Fuel
The first hydrogen fuel station just being launched here in Jakarta. The cost is cheaper here in Indonesia more than CNG! Now I'm hoping for Toyota to release Mirai at affordable price here in Indonesia Jakarta.
The Indonesian state-owned electric company, PLN, has built 22 Green Hydrogen Plant. PLN with Saudi's ACWA Power and Pupuk Indonesia join hands to build these GHP. They are using solar power plant to produce the hydrogen.
Oh, gosh! The more I think of it, the FUD about hydrogen uses grey production is now not relevant. At least for Indonesia. We have the hydrogen fuel generated from green technology since day one.
Proud Indonesian here. Lol.
I'm hoping for the next regime to be also supportive for this solution. I know they are more towards EV because we produce nickel and many car brands are opting their EV plant here in Indonesia. But I think it is good that Indonesia also supportive to other renewable energy. Just like in the past where Indonesia chose to be Non-Block/neutral.
Japanese Government Push for Hydrogen
Using hydrogen is aligned with the Japanese government. They are pushing hydrogen as the renewable solution for fuel. Many heavy industries aligned themselves to produce hydrogen-based things, including cars.
Japan may have a rough start using grey hydrogen, but it has re-aligned itself with better solution towards green hydrogen society. They are pushing hydrogen hard because they are lacking the hydrocarbon resources. The fuel enabling them to fully support themselves and reduce the dependency of hydrocarbon.
What I think I can benefit from this is Toyota as a car manufacturer from Japan can/will supports hydrogen-based car. I believe in two to three years Toyota will introduce Mirai or another similar car with affordable price.
Daihatsu, Suzuki, and probably the Korean like Hyundai may open their hydrogen car manufacture here. I hope.
The Future of EV
Throughout this article I seems to pull EV down. This is because whenever I watched YouTube videos from Europe and many articles from sustainable energy supporters, they always sing high note for EV and pull the Hydrogen down. I think I can say that this is my rebuttal to them.
I don't hate EV. I just don't like it being in high praise while we close our eyes of the environmental impact for producing it. I also grow weary for the future of humankind which toward private company dependent. A profit-steered entity can go astray if left unchecked. There are instances of those misfits.
I wish for EV to be successful also. If they can realize themselves about the problematic cost of producing and maintaining. I hope the new EU Right to Repair can be standardized around the world. I hope they also realize that EV can be a game changer but also can be a game destroyer and accept that it also has the up and down sides.
We need to support any solution towards renewable energy. Be it EV, hydrogen, or any other resources. Don't treat them like trash.
Okay, back to the topic. As I said, I chose hydrogen, but EV may also have better future.
BYD is revolutionizing the battery by creating blade battery. It has higher safety standard. In the other spectrum, Toyota and Idemitsu tries to create and commercialized solid-state battery.
Yummy! Competition.
For a company with lack of will to pursue EV, Toyota seems getting their feet deep in EV technology. What a tsundere! Lol.
On the serious note, Toyota said they just want to have à la carte for everyone. Not everyone can support EV. With massive industry Toyota has, if they fully committed, many countries have their infrastructure fails to support EV growth.
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